![]() The idea behind this betting system is that the public can be easily brainwashed by the media and tends to be wrong more often than not, so the more excited and loaded up they are on one side of a game, the more likely it is that the “smart” wager is taking the opposite side and fading them instead. One of the most popular sports betting systems is the “contrarian method” of going against whatever side the public is backing. Video Poker Guide: Play the Best Online Video Poker Games.In this hypothetical scenario, there’s still an edge compared to their model, but it isn’t a significant edge. Now the reverse line movement kicks in, to a line where the sharp bettor wasn’t fully comfortable placing the bet. Once they get a line where their model shows a significant enough difference between its prediction and the spread, the sharp bettor places the bet. As more and more action goes in the Suns’ direction, the line keeps moving and gets more appealing to the sharp bettor. If the sharp bettor had a model that said the Jazz were six or seven points better than the Suns, they might be waiting for the line to move more toward Phoenix before placing their bet. Hunting for the old line at other books is the best way to take advantage of reverse line movement. It’s possible to still get the old line at a different sportsbook before they all react. The line has to move for the reverse line movement to be apparent, meaning the edge is already smaller after the move is made. Once you see reverse line movement it might be too late. Assuming it’s real reverse line movement based on a sharp bettor, which isn’t always easy to prove definitively, wouldn’t you want to be on the same side of a bet as a professional bettor? They don’t win every bet, but that means it’s likely a good bet to place. ![]() Why reverse line movement matters to bettors The concept works for sports where moneyline is more popular than spread (like baseball or soccer). The movement would also apply to the moneyline for the game because spread and moneyline bets are correlated. It could have been because of an injury update or weather conditions for an outdoor sport. This example assumes the line move toward Utah was actually reverse line movement from a sharp bettor. This is the sportsbook essentially making its own value bet, thinking the sharp bettor is worth betting with and they will make more money moving the line this way. It’s somewhat risky because the sportsbook will likely have even more action on Suns, putting them in a somewhat vulnerable position. If a sportsbook respects a sharp bettor enough, they will move the line in that direction because the sportsbook wants to be on the same side as that bettor. They need to know who is good enough to consistently take their money and respond accordingly. When those professional bettors, also known as sharps, make bets, sportsbooks take note. They saw something that most bettors did not. The simplest answer is that a professional bettor, maybe even more than one, bet on the Jazz in this example. Now that we’ve established that reverse line movement is when a betting line moves away from the general betting public consensus we can get into why a sportsbook would want to do this. What gives? Why would a sportsbook do such a crazy thing? What does the sportsbook or a small number of bettors know that the general public does not? The significance of reverse line movement An overwhelming majority of the bets are already going to Phoenix and now the line moves to Utah, creating an even more enticing bet on the Suns for a majority of the betting public. Reverse line movement would come into play if the line moved to Utah -4 or -4.5. It won’t raise any red flags but is a noteworthy trend in the betting action of this Suns-Jazz game. ![]() When it comes to line movement, there’s a big difference between the percentage of tickets and the amount of money on each side, but for the sake of this example, both numbers are aligned and the line moves to Phoenix because of all the bets going to that side. That might be enough for a sportsbook to move the spread toward the Suns with a new line of Jazz -3. Sports betting sites that show public betting numbers have the Suns getting nearly 80 percent of the action. ![]() Let’s take an NBA game with the Phoenix Suns at the Utah Jazz. Reverse line movement is a more advanced concept that occurs when a line moves against the trend of what side of a bet is receiving more action. ![]()
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